COVID-19 Update 1: How to tell if a pandemic is likely to occur or not–R0 and the serial interval.


In this video, you’ll learn how the reproductive ratio (R0) and the serial interval influence the spread of an infectious agent. We’ll compare the R0 and serial intervals of SARS-CoV-2 to that of other comparable diseases in order to get a feeling for the likelihood of COVID-19 becoming a pandemic.

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Check out current COVID-19 case and mortality statistics:
Johns Hopkins: and

Study reporting on Influenza R0:
“Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature.” BMC Infect Dis 14, 480 (2014).

Studies estimating the serial interval of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2:
Nishiura et al:
Li et al:
Zhang et al:

Studies estimating the serial interval of Influenza:

Speaker: Franz Wiesbauer, MD MPH
Internist & founder at Medmastery


Watch the other Medmastery COVID-19 Updates:
COVID-19 Update: How to stop an epidemic – Herd immunity

COVID-19 Update: Symptoms of COVID-19

COVID-19 Update: Clinical characteristics of COVID-19

COVID-19 Update: Estimating case fatality rates for COVID-19
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