COVID-19 Update 1: How to tell if a pandemic is likely to occur or not–R0 and the serial interval.



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In this video, you’ll learn how the reproductive ratio (R0) and the serial interval influence the spread of an infectious agent. We’ll compare the R0 and serial intervals of SARS-CoV-2 to that of other comparable diseases in order to get a feeling for the likelihood of COVID-19 becoming a pandemic.

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Check out current COVID-19 case and mortality statistics:
Johns Hopkins: and
Worldometer:

Study reporting on Influenza R0:
“Estimates of the reproduction number for seasonal, pandemic, and zoonotic influenza: a systematic review of the literature.” BMC Infect Dis 14, 480 (2014).

Studies estimating the serial interval of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2:
Nishiura et al:
Li et al:
Zhang et al:

Studies estimating the serial interval of Influenza:

Speaker: Franz Wiesbauer, MD MPH
Internist & founder at Medmastery

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Watch the other Medmastery COVID-19 Updates:
COVID-19 Update: How to stop an epidemic – Herd immunity
Watch:

COVID-19 Update: Symptoms of COVID-19
Watch:

COVID-19 Update: Clinical characteristics of COVID-19
Watch:

COVID-19 Update: Estimating case fatality rates for COVID-19
Watch:

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